Are you a thrill junkie? Do you bet on just about anything? Sometimes it pays to just bet on the underdog. Take this past weekend for example. The Dallas Cowboys played the New York Giants. The Cowboys were a public bet, the most popular team in America. Now, the most bets placed on the Cowboys were going to be on the Giants. The Cowboys won the game and the Cowboys bettors were big winners.
The next weekend the Giants played the Cowboys again. This time the Cowboys looked rather average. This is not the case over 75% of the time, the final books keep telling us. They are not going to beat the Giants on a consistent basis. Then again, in a closer match up like this past weekend the bettors would have been better served taking the points.
There are many games like this on any given Sunday. Many bettors think it is just like the double digit spreads the books put up in the NFL. The double digits spreads do bring in a few more bettors than the actual spread in some cases, but not enough to offset the number of losers.
As long as the books put up the double digit spreads or the more popular three digits spreads, there will always be bettors continuing to put money down on the Cowboys, Giants or whichever team is receiving the betting line.
Where there is no pointspread taken there is no bias in the betting and that is the key to sports betting. In the NFL unlike the NBA, there is no power rating in the NFL. The only way to win bets on the NFL is to have the better record, in my mind that is more evaluate than points spread.
The NFL is also one of the few sports in which it is possible to fire another coach and still pick up a profit. Usually in the NBA you have to give the GM of the team a better than a 60% chance of winning the game to beat the point spread. That can be a little tough to do in the case of a team like the Wizards. They are only 60-41 (Under) and should add the extra points to beat the spread, but they are the worst team in the NBA.
There might be some bets on the NFL worth looking at. The Naga303 are playing the Bills this weekend. New England is 10-2 over the last 11 games played, while the Bills are 9-4-1 over the same time span. According to the oddsmakers, the Patriots are the probable favorite with a total of 208 and the Bills are the probable favorite with a total of 210. Sometimes in the NFL, the public can be wrong and the line can move quickly opposite of the expected line movement. Then there are the cases where the line might not move, yet the public might believe they are going to lose.
It might be smart to bet the Patriots to win the game between the two teams. Since the Belichick era started in the NFL, the Pats are 12-1-1 ATS versus the spread. That includes covering the 9-4 mark as well as the 7-8 mark. The lone loss was a by 2 point last season against the Broncos. Bookmakers are likely to make the Pats the favorite again this time of the season and that might catch some paying interest.
The Bills are 3-13 ATS in September, with all three of those losses coming by 17, 27 and 17. Bills quarterback J.P. Losman has thrown several touchdown passes in the last three games and he could be in for a career performance this weekend, against the Patriots. Bookmakers are likely to make the Pats the favorite to cover the spread.